by Kara Machowski
For the past three weeks, the word that has been on the tip of my tongue has been coronavirus. On February 8th, I concluded through a few mathematical estimates that the virus would inevitably spread worldwide by mid-April. I’m no mathematician by any means and annoyed my husband with wine or whiskey-infused warnings, but if you look for a pattern well enough, one will eventually emerge. I studied the number of infected alongside the rise vs. the mortality rate of the illness, 20% as of February 10th. This percentage has since significantly fallen as the virus battles human immunity.
The keyword for predicting the illness is the word ‘pattern’. There is no real such pattern for the Covid-19 virus, unlike SARS, H1N1 and MERS. The lifetime of Covid-19 began at the end of December 2019. I found the most interesting was the estimated time from when a person becomes infected to either when they succumb to the illness or recover. The first of the infected, Patient 1, in Wuhan, was diagnosed at the end of December; some reported symptoms began around December 1st, indicating that the Covid-19 virus originated near the end of November. The first death, Patient 1, was January 9th, just over a month after having their first symptoms. The doctor who treated this patient passed away roughly one month after first treating that patient. Reported deaths indicate that they occur after 6 days and up to 40 days after the first sign of symptoms.
Why the Infectious Rate Rose so Quickly in One Day in Wuhan
According to Worldometers.info, on February 10th, the number of those infected with Covid-19 rose from 45,000 to 59,000 overnight. There was such a rise in reported cases because there was a lack of people tested in Wuhan. This also indicated that the increase of the spread was misreported and misestimated, which meant the virus was spreading at a much larger rate. Even though Wuhan took very prudent measures to keep the virus contained, it is likely that the mismanagement of testing and the mass celebration of the Chinese New Year is why the virus spread to other areas. Wuhan has been on lock-down since mid-January. The actual number of infects in the United States and worldwide is more than likely much larger than being reported. This is due to the fact that China originated the testing kits and had an abundance compared to anywhere else around the world. Additionally, cases have popped up where there was either no history of recent travel or being connected to anyone who has recently traveled, let alone who may be infected.
What is Going to Happen when a Third World Country Becomes Infected?
The virus had mainly metastasized in Wuhan, China, at which some say there was not a fast enough response. The truth is they were more prepared for the coronavirus than most countries at this current moment, including the United States. What will happen when the Covid-19 virus infects a country that is not only ill-prepared but already has a lack of medical materials, professionals. In some sects, neither aids exist. While the mortality rate lingers around 6%, what could that percentage be without proper medical care or even nutrition that so many worldwide lack? At such instance, would First and Second World countries are willing, or even able to aid Third World countries who may otherwise, may see an obliteration of a large majority of their population? While humorous memes circulate the web, one must wonder, will those memes soon turn into “prayers for Uganda”?
Deaths Are Likely to Rise at an Alarming Rate Before They Drop
As of today, there are just over 3,000 deaths from the novel virus. Most of those patients, including the recoveries, had proper medical care throughout the most critical days. Consider for a moment it takes a patient one month to either recover or succumb to the virus. If we looked back one month ago, the number of those infected was 24,000, with 426 reported deaths. As of today, March 3rd, there are a reported 90,000 infected. Consider the number of deaths that could occur over the next month. The mortality rate did drop over the last month. Favilavir, Chloroquine, and Remdesivir are currently being used to battle Covid-19 as an anti-novel drug that fights the virus. Perhaps the declining percentage in mortality is due to these drugs helping those who are infected. However, there is a possibility that the number of deaths and infections is higher than being reported.
Unfortunately, since this is a new illness, researchers and professionals must go off of current analysis and possibilities. We have already witnessed an overnight rise in deaths from 2 in the United States to 4. All were living in the same nursing home in Washington. Which begs the question, what will happen to our elderly? To those who have preexisting disorders, fighting immune disorders, or are on a medication that suppresses their immune system? Unfortunately, according to medical experts, we’ve yet to see the belly of this beast. While you may be able to fight off Covid-19 with ease, some are even unaware that they are carrying the illness. Our elderly and already sick are going to have a challenging time.
Covid-19 in America
Currently, Wuhan has been on lock-down for over a month. Businesses continue to pay their employees, urging those who can work from home to continue working—others who are unable but still are compensated. One has to wonder what will happen when the inevitable outbreak becomes a pandemic in the United States? Will companies follow Wuhan’s lead? Certain companies, such as grocery, retail and medical employers, may have difficulty estimating when or if they can let their employees stay home, let alone if they will continue to be paid while on leave. Companies such as Google, Amazon, and Facebook employ those who can work from home. Mark Zuckerberg also pulled out of South by Southwest, SXSW, while orders halted the Oculus Quest VR Headset.
Already there is a shortage of testing kits, most notably in California, where there is the largest outbreak in the United States. There are short of 1,000 testing kits in the Golden State, where one South Korean airline steward who was infected traveled through LAX, with an average of 1,650 flights per day, all that they can do is closely monitor the possible infections. Washington estimates that the virus has been spreading, undetected, for up to six weeks. They say that they are ready to test likely infected persons, and Mayor Angela Birney declared a local emergency proclamation for Redmond, Washington, where the nursing home is located. On Monday, Governor of Arizona Doug Ducey stated that Arizona is ready with testing supplies for rapid testing so they won’t have to send patient samples to the CDC and wait longer for results. In-house and in-state testing yields results within one day, which is much faster than sending tests out to the CDC as states had to do previously, including the one positive case in Arizona. Currently, the CDC is under fire for letting a patient waiting on test results leave the CDC’s care, where she traveled to a mall and then her hotel before her test came back positive.
What Can We Do?
“Keep Calm and Wash Your Hands” memes have been sprouting on Facebook and social media. There is a lot of truth to this, but it doesn’t put those currently worried about the spread at ease. The most important advice is to stay vigilant, be smart. If someone is in constant contact with the elderly or someone who has a preexisting illness, they should take precautions right now. If you know someone who is returning from overseas with a number of infections, keep your distance or avoid contact. Don’t worry, they’ll understand. Also, if you are someone who is returning from overseas, then you should limit your contact with others.
While the CDC, other professionals, and agencies urge those who aren’t sick not to wear a mask, if you are a possible infect or someone with a preexisting illness and are worried, you should wear a mask and limit contact. Some companies are implementing the six-foot rule of not entering personal space and keeping your distance. Stay vigilant, if you’re in an area where there is an outbreak, consider limiting your exposure to others. Stay home from events, have a date night at home vs. going out. And most importantly, if you don’t feel well, stay home! Professionals don’t urge you to rush to the ER for a slight fever or aches. Most likely at this moment, if you are separated from the spread, then you have the flu, not the novel coronavirus. However, if you’re having difficulty breathing, eating, drinking fluids, then call your physician. Otherwise, if you have to seek immediate help, limit the spread by not coming into contact with others except with direct warning and proper precautions.
At this current moment of 12:00pm EST, United States Health Officials are being grilled by congress as to how the United States is prepared for Covid-19.
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