by Kara Machowski
They played the part, they sounded smart, especially when Dr. Erickson uses the word ‘extrapolate’ dozens of times, they looked like doctors and came from a state that we first saw the virus appear. But, the data was not only wrong, it was used to hold up a scientific theory that was based on limited data and didn’t take other factors into account.
For me, the first bell went off when Dr. Erickson introduced himself and Dr. Massihi as “entrepreneurial” doctors.
Dr.’s Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi of Accelerated Urgent Care in Bakersfield, California have recently gained the attention of the masses who are urging the country to reopen. Their YouTube video went viral and since has been taken down by YouTube itself, as they tried to use “fact based” data to scientifically theorize that mass-herding is a far better idea than quarantining.
Dr. Erickson, who mainly dominated the alternate angle, pushed the idea that (ugh, this again) coronavirus and the flu are just as deadly, a fact that is not only wrong, but he disproves through his own ‘extrapolated’ findings. Let’s talk about this; Dr. Erickson inaccurately ‘extrapolates’ that there have been 4.7 million positive Covid-19 cases in the state of California — This is not even close to the actual positive cases through out America at just over 1 million, let alone worldwide at 3.1. He then uses that 4.7 million to ‘extrapolate’ the death percentage in California using their death record (at the time of the video’s taping) of 1,227 deaths, which he ‘extrapolates’ a death rate of 0.03%, still 3x the death rate of the flu at 0.01%. According to experts, the current world wide death rate still sits at 3.4%.
Again, when Dr. Erickson compares his ‘extrapolation’ that 19% of Americans have battled coronavirus he states that near 60 million Americans have been infected, and then states that it’s near the 55 million who are infected with the flu in one year. What he negates to mention is how our lockdown procedures have minimized the spread and we are still barely 5 months into the year. Which if you 'extrapolate' to his type of theorizing, then over 130 million people will be infected by the end of the year and at a 0.03% mortality rate that would be 390 thousand American deaths, still 7-10x the amount of people who die yearly from the flu.
While appearing on Ingrahm Angle on Fox News, Dr. Dan Erickson went as far to state that the flu vaccine is most likely ineffective against new forms of flu/influenza, and even Laura Ingrahm called the doctor out, saying it had to be at least closer to at least 50% effective, not his 'extrapolated 0%.
Dr. Erickson uses data that was supposedly collected from their 5,213 COVID-19 tests they had conducted at their centers and testing site in Kern county. Let’s talks about Kern country for a minute; They have only reported 5 deaths and 847 positive coronavirus cases. They use two county’s reported data that never had even a moderate spread to support their theory.
When stating that the models that predicted ‘millions’ of deaths were “woefully inaccurate”, he again neglects to mention that the models were based on the idea of 0% lockdown or social distancing measures, which have noted to have worked significantly.
Dr. Erickson wrongly mentions that Sweden is implementing ‘herd-immunity’, which means that life goes on as normal and many will get sick through out time, but the idea is that they won’t overwhelm the healthcare system and eventually those who survive will have immunity. This is NOT what Sweden is doing. Yes, many still go out to restaurants and cafés. Yes children under 16 are still attending school. BUT, Sweden is telling its citizens to social distance. To stay home if you’re sick and has a reported 70% decrease in mobility, which means people are being responsible and taking the virus seriously, not like the flu. Universities are closed and are implementing distance learning. Not to mention, Sweden’s 10 million person population or their population density of 64 per sq. mi., where America’s is 94 and California is gouging 251 per sq. mi..
He assumes that 12% of Californians were infected with coronavirus based off of current test rates, which we all know are limited to those who truly assume that they have coronavirus based off of either their symptoms, or have come into contact with someone who has the virus. Only 12% of those individuals tested positive. Their study is also solely based on testing for coronavirus, not for antibodies. Even California has reported that the cases in L.A. could be in the hundreds of thousands, a predicted (or as Dr. E would say, extrapolated) 4.1% of L.A.’s population, which is the hardest hit city in the state and far less than Dr. Erickson’s ‘extrapulated’ 12%.
When Dr. Erickson began to bring up the state of New York and how they have a 39% positive cases of those who have qualified to be tested and tries to spin it by saying that 39% of New Yorkers have battled or are battling coronavirus. At 7:34 he is quickly interrupted by someone off camera who wanted to make sure that he clarified that 39% of those who qualified to be tested, tested positive, which is unfortunately barely audible. This is where Dr. Erickson uses the word ‘extrapolate’ to explain how he can reason that the percentage could be applied to the entire ‘county’, what he meant was state. He is also corrected that he keeps quoting models that were based off of “no social distancing” instead of our current measures that have been proven to work. Dr. Erickson then goes on to state that there are 19 million people in the state of New York, and 19,000 have died from coronavirus and ‘extrapolates’ that the death rate is 0.01%. I want you read that sentence again. This is literally assuming that every single New Yorker had coronavirus. Yes, he is extrapolating that percentage with the assumption that EVERY SINGLE New Yorker has battled coronavirus. I say battled too, because a correct death rate is based on those who are infected as well as those who have recovered. Then he states that the recovery rate is 92% (insert record scratch and stop). Which would mean that the death rate is 8%. I just want to really highlight how directly wrong his ‘extrapolations’ are that he even contradicts himself. Dr. Carl Bergstrom, a University of Washington biologist who specializes in infectious disease modeling rebuttals Dr. Erickson’s extrapolations. “The doctors should never have assumed that the patients they tested, who came for walk-in COVID-19 tests or who sought urgent care for symptoms they experienced in the middle of a pandemic, are representative of the general population” she said. “They’ve used methods that are ludicrous to get results that are completely implausible,” Bergstrom explained. As I’ve mentioned, Dr. Erickson really likes to use the word ‘extrapolate', which is basically a scientific theory. An idea based off of data, but if that data is skewed to support your theory, when applied in normal or other situations, it doesn’t hold up. What that means is that opening up Kern County, where Bakersfield resides, would most likely work as long as they still follow social distancing, but opening up L.A. wouldn’t be a great idea where they have had over 20 thousand confirmed cases and 1,000 deaths, a majority of the deaths that have occurred in the state of California. Dr. Erickson drives in the fact that his ICUs in Bakersfield are essentially empty, but he negates the mentioning of how many cases specifically Bakersfield has experienced, as the only information available is for the entire county of Kern. He also states that their number of cases have dropped significantly, but Kern county again, has only had 847 confirmed cases. Dr. Erickson goes as far to say that quarantining is worse for people because sheltering in place lowers the immune system by people washing their hands so much and cleaning surfaces. And when he is questioned about their why their ‘extrapolated’ data is more accurate and timely than the world’s top doctors he states that it's 'because it’s based on data they didn’t have'. Even though, like Dr’s Erickson and Massihi, top pathologists gather new data and create new extrapolations everyday. Dr. Massihi does drive in the fact that their extrapolations are mainly based on Kern County and he does seems to be the more grounded of the two. "A virus that kills its host too rapidly may compromise its own chances for maximal spread." - Benhur Lee. In a perfect world, could we have perhaps quarantined smaller sections of the nation, cities, neighborhoods? Perhaps. But the thing is that all that it takes is one person to enter an area that hasn’t been infected and the virus would quickly spread as it camouflages itself in the beginning to be non-detected.
Since this video has aired Kern County has reopened.
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